Risk of Event Analysis

Marine Risk Assessment studies events such as collisions and groundings, developing relationships between cause and effect. Typically we analyse a scenario where there is a risk of vessel collision, and then calculate the probability and consequence of a collision.

In addition to conventional techniques for collision risk studies, we also use AMATIS® to determine encounters, evaluate crossing, meeting and overtaking situations and allocate Collision Risk Index values.

Using ship traffic information and historical casualty data, the risk of a serious incident can be assessed. Comparative risk assessment for shipping at different ports and different locations is undertaken as initial qualitative assessment.

Quantitative Risk Analysis uses Fault and Event Tree Analysis. The consequences of an accident are expressed in terms of the penetration of a ship's tanks and the loss of cargo, containment or pollution. Proprietary software programs are used to predict vapour cloud releases, with comprehensive databases available on oil spillages.

The results are operational or design measures to mitigate against the frequency or consequences of incidents.

Software in use:

• BQCOST repair quantities and cost database
•  @RISK cost and schedule analysis